{"id":1178,"date":"2018-06-21T13:37:10","date_gmt":"2018-06-21T12:37:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ace-ev.com.au\/?p=1178"},"modified":"2019-04-09T13:31:26","modified_gmt":"2019-04-09T12:31:26","slug":"australia-set-for-surge-in-electric-vehicles-and-infrastructure-in-just-four-years-new-modelling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ace-ev.com.au\/australia-set-for-surge-in-electric-vehicles-and-infrastructure-in-just-four-years-new-modelling\/","title":{"rendered":"Clean Energy Finance Corp \u2013 Australia set for surge in electric vehicles and infrastructure in just four years: new modelling"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

> Read full article here<\/a><\/h3>
\"CEFC-logo\"<\/div>
\u00a0<\/div>

Electric vehicles could represent 90 percent of all cars and light commercial vehicles on Australian roads by 2050, supported by $1.7 billion in private investment in new charging infrastructure, according to new modelling produced for the CEFC and ARENA.<\/p>

The modelling forecasts a surge in electric vehicle (EV) sales from as early as 2021, based on the right combination of incentives, models and infrastructure. It also finds that, on current trends, EVs could have the same driving range capabilities as diesel or petrol-fuelled cars by 2024, addressing one of the biggest consumer concerns about EVs.<\/p>

CEFC CEO Ian Learmonth said: \u201cAustralians have traditionally been early adopters of new technology, but we\u2019re lagging when it comes to EVs. This research shows that we can increase the uptake of EVs in a way that benefits drivers as well as the environment. It\u2019s about lowering prices, supporting more models and creating a charging network.<\/p>

\u201cThe reality is that the transition to EVs is inevitable. We\u2019re already seeing vehicle makers confirm they will stop producing pure internal combustion engines over the coming years. At the same time, we\u2019re seeing dramatic improvements in vehicle charging networks, creating the essential infrastructure to support electric vehicles. These measures can deliver a material improvement to our greenhouse gas emissions as our vehicle fleet evolves over the coming decades.\u201d<\/p>

Mr Learmonth added: \u201cRight across the clean energy economy, we are seeing dramatic falls in prices as the use of new technologies becomes more widespread and as the private sector responds to new investment opportunities. We can expect to see the same trends in the EV market, with increased sales driving down vehicle purchase costs and private investors financing new charging infrastructure to service this new market opportunity.\u201d<\/p>

The CEFC and ARENA commissioned energy specialist Energeia to assess Australia\u2019s EV market, and to examine measures to accelerate the uptake of EVs, and the associated requirements for vehicle charging infrastructure.<\/p>

Click here for the full Energeia report<\/a><\/p>

Click here for an CEFC Clean Energy Snapshot<\/a> on EVs.<\/p>

Energeia modelled three scenarios: no intervention<\/em>, with EV uptake driven entirely by the economics of imported EVs; moderate intervention<\/em>, showing the impact of a range of potential measures to lower purchase, registration and toll costs, alongside access to transit lanes and new public-access charging infrastructure; and accelerated intervention<\/em>, with these measures applied more quickly as more models become available.<\/p>

Under the moderate intervention scenario, EVs would reach 100\u00a0per\u00a0cent of new car sales in 2040, when more than half of all vehicles on Australian roads would be electric. This represents almost 1.9 million new EV sales a year.<\/p>

Energeia found that Australia has very low EV penetration compared with other advanced economies. Only 0.1\u00a0per\u00a0cent of new car sales in Australia are EVs, behind the United States at 0.9\u00a0per\u00a0cent, the United Kingdom at 1.4\u00a0per\u00a0cent and well behind global leaders such as California at three\u00a0per\u00a0cent, the Netherlands at 6.4\u00a0per\u00a0cent and Norway at 29\u00a0per\u00a0cent.<\/p>

Energeia considered the impact of so-called range anxiety, where drivers are concerned they will run out of power, and perceived long recharge times. It reported that more than 99\u00a0per\u00a0cent of Australian car trips are under 50 kilometres, so a round trip is already well within the range of current EV models.<\/p>

By 2024, EVs owners could expect to charge their 100 kWh battery at a public access fast charging network in about five\u00a0minutes or less, at a cost of just $11. While the same charge at a dedicated charger at home or work would take four hours, the estimated cost of $17-19 was substantially better than fuel costs.<\/p>

Energeia identified a combination of incentives, models and infrastructure in forecasting Australian EV sales, including:<\/p>